Reform UK intends to deport very large numbers, with public statements referencing 500,000–600,000 removals over a parliamentary term and proposals for secure facilities to hold 24,000 people for monthly deportation cycles, equating to about 288,000 removals a year after an 18-month build-up. Operational analysis indicates removing 6,000 people per week would need roughly 1.7 escorting officers per person and about five flights per day carrying an average 158 people, implying the equivalent availability of five jumbo aircraft year-round. The proposed construction speed, scale and staffing requirements exceed historical government achievements.
Nigel Farage has set out how a Reform government would tackle what he called "uncontrolled illegal migration" with moves including human rights law changes, and mass deportations. But how deliverable are the plans? Let's start with the headline figure of how many people the party badges as illegal migrants (the precise definition of this is up for debate) that it says it will deport.
There's no figure in the party's document - but during the event Nigel Farage asked Reform UK chair Zia Yusuf whether it was realistic to deport 500,000-600,000 people within the lifetime of the first Parliament under a Reform UK government, to which he replied "totally, yeah". The party is proposing to create secure facilities to hold 24,000 to be deported every month - that gives us another figure of 288,000 a year, ramping up after 18 months of building work.
Removing 6,000 people per week would, using today's operations as a guide, require an average of 1.7 escorting officers per individual removed. When you break that down into departing planes per day, that's within the maths for the party's projection of five flights per day. But these targets are far in excess of what any government has ever achieved. An average of 158 people per flight, plus security, would require the equivalent of five jumbos to be available all year around.
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