Nigel Farage's Reform UK party experienced a significant victory in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, winning by a mere six votes after a robust ground campaign that managed to convert a hefty Labour majority. This success indicates an effective professionalization of the party, which had previously struggled. Despite mixed results in other elections, the overall trends suggest that voters are shifting their support from Labour to Reform, challenging conventional political narratives in the region and suggesting a potential resurgence for the party.
Think about the swing, Farage told Sky News in an interview minutes after the results were declared. Think about the change this is heartland Labour party. Their vote has collapsed, and much of it's come to us. That does away with the sort of media narrative that somehow it's just us versus the Conservatives. It's not. This is a whole different politics, he said.
Reform won Runcorn by just six votes: the narrowest byelection victory since 1945, and a result that will leave Labour officials wondering whether the prime minister should have visited the constituency during the campaign.
But to achieve that victory, the party had to overturn a majority of more than 14,000, with a swing of 17 percentage points from Labour. National polls, which put Reform ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, imply a swing of just 10 percentage points, which would not have been enough to win the seat.
In North Tyneside, Reform lost by just 444 votes after a 26-point swing away from Labour. Reform's campaign was so extensive that it demonstrated the effectiveness of the party's ground campaign.
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