Labour and the Tories are banking on a return to the old normal'. That's not what voters want | Rafael Behr

"A midterm poll measures how much voters like the government. A general election asks whether the opposition is trusted to take over. It isn't the same question. Labour's hopes for recovery rest on that distinction. The plan is that economic growth and governing competence will boost general wellbeing in the coming years. That will dial up the risks associated with other parties, especially for Reform UK."

"Voters who lack enthusiasm for the prime minister may be persuaded to stick with him if the alternative is Nigel Farage. A similar calculation sustains the Conservatives, although in their version, the economy falters. The Tories then hope to surge with a campaign arguing that Labour has overtaxed Britain and misspent the proceeds, and that Reform UK, lacking fiscal or any other discipline, would make matters worse. These are optimistic but not wildly improbable scenarios."

"They also have a common bias in the assumption that politics will follow precedent; that beneath the surface volatility flow strong and familiar currents; that the normal way of things is not lost for ever. For Labour, that assumes continuity of a trend for the ruling parties to regain support when a general election comes around. For the Tories, it is the idea that Britain always turns to them as the accountants of last resort, once Labour has run out of money."

Midterm opinion polls measure current approval of the government while general elections ask whether the opposition is trusted to take power. Labour relies on economic growth and governing competence to improve wellbeing and make voters wary of alternatives, particularly Reform UK. Conservatives hope an economic downturn will allow a campaign blaming Labour for overtaxing and misspending, portraying Reform UK as fiscally undisciplined. Both strategies assume political norms and precedents will reassert themselves and that only two parties are considered viable sources of prime ministers. Nigel Farage seeks to overcome this cultural barrier by showcasing Conservative converts to normalize Reform UK.

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