Labour MPs say Keir Starmer would not survive a local elections wipeout

"A wipeout for Labour in next May's local elections would spell the end of Keir Starmer's premiership, MPs have said, after the party suffered a crushing defeat in its traditional heartland in Wales. Though Plaid Cymru beat Reform UK to capture the Senedd seat in Caerphilly, the result highlighted a striking collapse of Labour's vote, prompting fears in Westminster that Labour could be reduced to third place in Wales, a loss that would leave the leader's position unrecoverable."

"If the national vote across Wales in May is even in the ballpark of Caerphilly, there's absolutely no way we can carry on like we are after that, one senior backbencher said. Obviously, parties in government struggle in byelections, but when your vote collapses to that extent, someone has got to take responsibility for it. Everyone's miserable, everyone's despondent. It's not as if there is an obvious sort of answer or successor to get us out of this mess. But we're all pretty clear, we can't just carry on as we are."

Labour experienced a crushing defeat in its Welsh heartland, raising fears of a wider collapse ahead of next May's local and devolved elections. Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly Senedd seat, while Labour's share fell to 11%, a 27% negative swing. Westminster figures warned that a similar outcome across Wales could reduce Labour to third place and end Keir Starmer's leadership. MPs expressed anger at perceived incoherent strategy within No 10 and demanded accountability after dramatic vote losses. The May contests include more than 1,600 English council seats and elections for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments, intensifying stakes for national leadership.

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