"The explosion of black market tobacco in recent years will not come as news to smokers, nor to anyone who pays attention to cigarette packs on the pavement and in beer gardens, but the dramatic decline in legal sales at a time when the number of smokers has been falling more modestly, is conclusive proof that we have a serious problem."
"Since 2020, the excise tax on cigarettes has risen by 73%, and the excise tax on rolling tobacco by 115%. Despite these significant tax rises, tobacco duty revenues have fallen from £10.4 billion to £7.9 billion since 2021 and are now the lowest on record, after adjusting for inflation."
"Studies have shown that cigarette consumption per smoker has remained stable in recent years. Estimates of smoking prevalence vary, but every survey indicates that the decline in the number of smokers has been much less than 52%."
Legal cigarette sales in the UK have collapsed dramatically, dropping from 40.6 billion sticks in 2021 to 19.8 billion in 2025, representing a 52% decline. Manufactured cigarettes fell 46% and rolling tobacco fell 59% in volume. Excise taxes increased substantially—73% on cigarettes and 115% on rolling tobacco since 2020. Despite these tax increases, tobacco duty revenues declined from £10.4 billion to £7.9 billion, reaching record lows after inflation adjustment. Smoking prevalence surveys show smoker numbers declined less than 52%, indicating the sales collapse cannot be explained by fewer smokers. This discrepancy conclusively demonstrates significant growth in the illicit tobacco market.
#illicit-tobacco-market #excise-tax-policy #uk-cigarette-sales-decline #black-market-growth #tobacco-duty-revenue
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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