The UK is negotiating with France for a migration deal where France will take back some migrants crossing the English Channel, while the UK will accept asylum claimants from France with legitimate cases. This is termed a "one-in-one" deal, aiming to deter illegal crossings. Critics contend the plan’s initial scope may only affect about 5% of current crossings, raising concerns about its overall effectiveness. Future success will depend on whether the scheme can scale up and significantly reduce the number of crossings.
Senior government figures believe they are on the cusp of achieving a breakthrough with Emmanuel Macron on a deal that would see France take back at least some of those who have crossed the English Channel on small boats. In return, the UK would take asylum claimants from France who wish to come to the UK and are believed to have a legitimate reason to do so.
Critics, including the Conservatives, say this would amount to about 5% of those who are attempting crossing currently, and so would be an inadequate deterrent. The Tories point to the deterrent they planned but never got started - the idea of sending migrants to Rwanda.
The test, in the months and years ahead, can it be scaled up sufficiently to make a noticeable impact on the numbers? Or, to put it more bluntly, do the numbers attempting a crossing start to fall, or not?
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