"A spectre is haunting the most ambitious politicians in Labour the question of timing. If you hope one day to become prime minister, you could blink and miss your moment. Andy Burnham clearly believed he did not have much time. But now he might have longer than he thought. Labour's powerful soft left caucus currently has no candidate who is ready to challenge the prime minister. Until they do, it seems unlikely they would be part of facilitating a leadership challenge en masse."
"It is why the survival of Keir Starmer as prime minister for far longer than many predict is underpriced as an option in Westminster. None of his rivals really know whether there is an advantage in being first mover. Go too soon and you end up yesterday's story, quickly consigned to the backbenches. Move too slowly and your rivals have sewn up all the support."
"Wes Streeting, the health secretary, looks like he benefits most from the NEC's decision to keep Burnham from returning to parliament. He is the only potential candidate who would be ready to move in May especially if Labour also lose the Gorton and Denton byelection. But the near unanimity in blocking Burnham is also a sign that the institutional support for Starmer is perhaps stronger than might have been imagined"
Timing dominates Labour politicians' calculations about a future prime ministership, as potential challengers risk moving too early or too late. Andy Burnham believed time was short, but party mechanisms have delayed his return, leaving the soft left without a ready candidate. That vacancy and institutional resistance make Keir Starmer's survival more likely than expected. Rivals face first-mover uncertainty, while Wes Streeting appears best positioned to act quickly if a May opening emerges. Many MPs publicly objected to blocking Burnham yet privately feared destabilising effects. Some MPs propose a non-binding PLP confidence vote, echoing the 2016 Corbyn contest.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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