"Plaid Cymru won in the Caerphilly byelection for our Senedd, with almost 50% of the vote. Reform lost. Labour collapsed. Each of those things means something significant for Wales, but it also carries valuable lessons for the rest of Britain. The message for Labour ought to be clear: standing up to the far-right can win elections. Labour has been the largest party in Wales for over 100 years, leading the Welsh government since the start of devolution in 1999."
"It won the Caerphilly seat in 2021 with 46% of the vote. Four years later, it has ended up with just 11%. The drop is startling, but to make matters worse, under the new Senedd election system that will be introduced in May 2026, 11% is roughly the level where parties can be totally wiped out. The system is proportional, but it brutally punishes smaller parties that slip beneath the 11% threshold. It seems Labour never imagined it would be this small."
Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly Senedd byelection with almost 50% of the vote, while Reform lost and Labour collapsed to about 11%. Standing up to the far-right is presented as an electoral strategy that can win seats. Labour previously held the Caerphilly seat with 46% in 2021 but fell dramatically by 2025. The new Senedd proportional system to be introduced in May 2026 severely penalises parties dropping below roughly 11%, risking total wipeout for smaller parties. Keir Starmer did not visit the constituency during the byelection campaign, and UK Labour's long dominance in Wales appears to have been taken for granted.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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