The Badenoch dilemma: what to do now the Tories are no longer the default rightwing option | Henry Hill

"Badenoch's speech was perfectly serviceable; the government's handling of defence is a big old bruise, and she is very happy to punch it. She has also partnered it with an actual policy intervention—reinstating the two-child welfare limit to fund an increase in defence spending—that adroitly targets another Labour vulnerability with rightwing voters. Yet despite all that, the cut-through has been minimal."

"In our increasingly fragmented party system, the dividends of simply bashing the government are simply going to be less than they were under the old party model, because a fall in Labour support does not automatically mean a rise in Conservative fortunes. In fact, the recent rally in Tory polling has been real but muted; they remain about six points down on where they were when Badenoch took over."

"Winning a hearing in such conditions requires a very different strategy to the one the Conservative party is used to, and senior Tories are still struggling to get the hang of it. More substantially, they have also not yet really got to grips with the sheer scale of problems Britain faces."

Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the Conservative Party shows mixed results following the spring conference in Harrogate. While her personal favorability ratings have risen since September and she demonstrates improved political effectiveness, this has not translated into significant party gains. Her speech effectively criticized the government's defence handling and proposed reinstating the two-child welfare limit to fund defence spending, targeting Labour vulnerabilities with rightwing voters. However, media coverage was limited, and Conservative polling remains approximately six points below where it stood when Badenoch assumed leadership. The party struggles to capitalize on declining Reform UK support. In Britain's fragmented political landscape, simply attacking the government yields diminished returns, as Labour losses do not automatically benefit Conservatives. Senior party figures have not yet adapted their strategy to these new conditions or adequately addressed the scale of Britain's underlying problems.

Read at www.theguardian.com