What does the falling birthrate mean for the British economy?

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the fertility rate (the number of children born to each woman) fell to 1.41 children per woman in 2024. That is the third year running that it has dropped and is the lowest since records began 90 years ago. It is widely accepted that a birthrate of 2.1 is required to sustain a population at its current level."

"This means the population of the United Kingdom is likely to fall over time, presenting a political and economic problem for Keir Starmer's Labour government, which is already facing a storm of protests over immigration and a stagnant economy. The birthrate figures cut to the heart of both of these issues and split the political narrative in ways that are difficult to address. It pits those who say there are too many people already in the UK and that immigration needs to stop, against those who say that without more people and a younger population which can be addressed by allowing more immigration the economy will stagnate."

"According to the report from the ONS, people in England and Wales are choosing to have children later in life than they did in previous decades. The average age of a new mother is 31, up from 29 two decades ago. The average age of a father is 33.9, up from 32.1 in 2004. This has been put down to rising housing and childcare costs and an uncertain employment landscape."

Fertility in England and Wales fell to 1.41 children per woman in 2024, the lowest since records began and the third consecutive annual drop. A rate of about 2.1 children per woman is required for population replacement, so the current level implies long-term population decline. Average maternal and paternal ages have risen to 31 and 33.9 respectively, reflecting delayed family formation. Rising housing and childcare costs, employment uncertainty, and business concerns about taxes and employer National Insurance have been cited as contributing factors. The decline intensifies debates over immigration policy, economic growth, and measures to support families or supplement the workforce.

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