"Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, the likely favourite among Labour MPs, is not in parliament. That means any resolution in the coming weeks would require a sitting MP to trigger a contest by getting the backing of 80-plus colleagues, or persuading Starmer to set a timetable to quit. The MP for Makerfield in Greater Manchester, Josh Simons, announced on Thursday afternoon that he is giving up his seat and wants Burnham to take it. But it remains to be seen if Downing Street will let him stand, and if he did, whether he would win."
"If that did not happen for any reason, then there could be an impasse. Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary on Thursday, had reportedly pledged to start a contest but seemingly failed to raise the necessary support among MPs. Other possible challengers like Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband do not seem to be mobilising fully. But things could change quickly, for example if one of the promised new tranches of documents about Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador to the US brings more damaging revelations."
"It is worth noting that, if someone did launch a formal challenge, Starmer could fight them and he could then win a vote of Labour members. If Downing Street allows the Labour machine to endorse Burnham as the candidate in Makerfield, it would take some weeks for the byelection to happen. A win would send him back to the Commons. Letting Burnham run as an MP is possible. While Downing Street made sure he was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton byelection, Starmer would be under huge pressure to change course this time around."
"Again, if a leadership contest followed, Starmer might opt to fight and could win. The party uses the single transferable vote system, where members rank candidates by preference. It would not be inconceivable for Starmer to win a three-way race based on second-choice votes from people who did not want one of the alternatives taking over. This could be different purely from a timetabling"
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is not currently an MP, so any Labour leadership or parliamentary contest would require either a sitting MP to trigger a contest with backing from 80-plus colleagues or Starmer to set a timetable to quit. Josh Simons, MP for Makerfield, announced he is giving up his seat and wants Burnham to take it, but Downing Street approval and electoral viability remain uncertain. If no formal challenge proceeds, an impasse could result. Other potential challengers have not fully mobilised support, though new damaging revelations could shift momentum. If a formal challenge occurs, Starmer could fight it and potentially win a vote of Labour members. If Downing Street permits Burnham to run, a byelection would take weeks, and a win would return him to the Commons. Labour leadership voting uses a single transferable vote system, allowing Starmer to win even in multi-candidate races through second-choice preferences.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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