"Texas Democrats selected state Rep. James Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in their primary on Tuesday after a well-publicized, frequently ugly, and unusually competitive race. Talarico was widely viewed, including by the GOP, as the more electable candidate in November. His message focuses more on inclusivity relative to Crockett's projection of partisan confrontation, and in a state where there are simply more Republicans than Democrats, crossover appeal matters."
"While polling heading into the primary showed a lot of variance, the average converged on Paxton leading the race by about 4 points. Paxton had held the lead over Cornyn, sometimes by substantial margins, throughout the race. With most of the vote counted, however, Cornyn is narrowly the leading vote-getter, with 42 percent to Paxton's 41."
"It isn't a statistical marvel that someone trailing by 4 points in an average of imperfect polls ends up leading by 1 point when human beings actually vote. And Cornyn still has to be concerned about the makeup of the runoff electorate, which could comprise more of the sort of die-hard MAGA voters favorable to Paxton."
Texas held competitive primary elections with significant implications for November's general election. Democrats selected state Rep. James Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, viewing him as more electable due to his inclusive messaging and crossover appeal in a Republican-leaning state. On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn narrowly leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with 42 percent to Paxton's 41 percent, defying pre-election polling that showed Paxton leading by approximately 4 points. Both races will proceed to runoffs in late May. Cornyn's stronger-than-expected performance provides momentum for his campaign and demonstrates the limitations of pre-election polling accuracy.
Read at Slate Magazine
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