Fewer than 12% of registered voters have returned ballots five days before the primary election, indicating very low turnout. Turnout is also low in District 8, which typically has some of the highest participation in the city. The governor race is described as confusing, with many voters waiting until the last minute. The election could be unusually low turnout while a major congressional seat and the future balance of the Board of Supervisors are at stake. Low turnout can favor more conservative candidates because older and more moderate-to-conservative voters are more likely to vote, though outcomes may differ. Large sums are being spent on social media, TV ads, mail, and canvassing, but TV advertising may be an expensive gamble because many viewers will not vote. Door-to-door is described as having more impact. Voters who do turn out are portrayed as more motivated and informed, making them less susceptible to big money. Chinese-language ballot return rates are higher than overall turnout.
"As of May 28, five days before the primary election, fewer than 12 percent of registered voters have turned in a ballot, Elections Department Data shows. That's very low turnout. It's low even in District 8, which doesn't have a supe election, but was once represented by state Sen. Scott Wiener, who is running for Congress, and which traditionally has some of the highest turnout in the city."
"Low-turnout elections in theory favor more conservative candidates, since the more moderate-to-conservative and older voters are more likely to go to the polls. But this could be different. Saikat Chakrabarti is pouring millions ($10 million so far) into a campaign that involves a ton of social media, TV ads, and mail. He's also paying canvassers. Wiener's allies are pouring millions into attacking Chakrabarti, mostly through mail. Big Tech is pouring millions into attacking Prop. D, the tax on big corporations that overpay their CEOs."
"Buying TV ads in a low-turnout race is an expensive gamble, and often a waste: At least half, probably three-quarters, of the people who see those ads won't end up voting. The people who do turn out this time are likely to be highly motivated voters, people who really care about a candidate and aren't likely to be influenced by all that money. (Door-to-door has a lot more impact)."
"The voters who turn out in an election like this tend to be more motivated and informed, and thus less likely to be influenced by big money. And interestingly, 13.4 percent of voters who requested a Chinese language ballot have turned it in; that's a lot higher than overall tur"
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