Survival odds for the Pac-12 were tracked after USC and UCLA announced departures to the Big Ten on June 30, 2022, and they fluctuated for nine months as dynamics evolved. By spring 2023, survival was an implied 60 percent probability when it was a 4-point favorite over extinction. That probability reflected the loss of USC and the Los Angeles media market, the ongoing risk that Washington and Oregon might leave for the Big Ten, and perceived lack of urgency from commissioner George Kliavkoff. Extended negotiations could generate modest extra revenue per campus but carried the existential downside of conference extinction. Those Pac-12 dynamics provide context for assessing the Mountain West’s uncertain prospects.
Soon after USC and UCLA announced their departures to the Big Ten on June 30, 2022, we published survival odds for the Pac-12 as an easy-to-digest means of helping fans better understand a complicated, highly fluid situation. The odds ebbed and flowed for nine months as various dynamics unfolded and former commissioner George Kliavkoff pursued a media rights agreement. In the spring of 2023, we settled on survival as a 4-point favorite over extinction.
Our skepticism was rooted in 1) the loss of the conference's major football brand (USC) and media market (Los Angeles) driving down demand for inventory, 2) the ongoing risk that Washington and Oregon, the most valuable remaining football schools, would leave for the Big Ten and 3) Kliavkoff's perplexing lack of urgency. As we wrote in Jan. '23: Slow-playing the process could prove advantageous, but is that the most likely outcome? Not from where we sit.
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