Job openings declined by 176,000 in July, pushing the openings rate down to 4.3%, its lowest since mid-2020. The ratio of job openings to unemployed people fell from over 2 in spring 2022 to about 0.99 in July, and unemployed people exceeded job openings for the first time in four years. Reported hiring, quits, and layoff rates were largely stable, but June data were sharply revised: openings were revised down by 80,000 while involuntary separations were revised up by 192,000. Similar negative revisions appeared in payroll employment for May and June, and healthcare openings dropped significantly.
By the numbers: Other key data points in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey were of the nothing-to-see-here variety. The hiring rate was stable, as were the rates at which people voluntarily quit their jobs and were discharged or laid off. There were, however, sharp negative revisions to June numbers, particularly in layoffs and discharges. The number of job openings in June was revised down by 80,000, and the number of people who lost their jobs involuntarily that month was revised up by a whopping 192,000 from the earlier estimate.
The intrigue: The July jobs report published in early August also showed huge negative revisions to payroll employment for May and June. That the pattern has repeated in JOLTS implies that employers who submit their survey responses to the Bureau of Labor Statistics promptly are doing fine, but that those who submit surveys late - and thus are only incorporated in revisions - are flashing signs of weakness. Of note: There was a particularly steep drop in the number of job openings in health care, which has been an outsized contributor to overall job creation in recent years.
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