"The Federal Reserve claims that, because labor force growth has slowed significantly, with fewer people seeking employment this year, this is why the jobs data is worse in 2025. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on live TV that job growth of zero to 50,000 is now acceptable. Because labor force growth has cooled significantly, this is the primary reason the unemployment rate is closer to 4% today instead of 5%."
"Manufacturing jobs have been losing positions since late 2022. Although the size of the job losses isn't massive, this decline isn't simply due to slowing population growth; it has persisted for years. It's challenging to say this is due to a lack of labor force growth when the Fed said that the Job data was strong in 2023 due to labor force growth."
Labor force growth slowed substantially in 2025, reducing new job-seekers and contributing to weaker jobs data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated job growth of zero to 50,000 is now acceptable. Cooler labor force growth has kept the unemployment rate nearer 4% rather than approaching 5%. The labor market has softened since 2023 and, absent slower labor force growth, unemployment would likely rise above the Fed's comfort level of 4.3%. Manufacturing employment has been declining since late 2022, and residential construction is shedding jobs amid low housing permits and elevated completed-unit sales. Lower long-term yields and mortgage rates have moderated housing sector pressures, yet residential job losses remain a negative economic signal.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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