3 ways the attacks on Iran could impact a U.S. economy already hit by tariffs and a weak job market

"While cost-conscious Americans who are dealing with an affordability crisis will not take this increase lightly, such an increase will not materially affect economic growth. An increase at that level, even if sustained, would barely lift inflation, economists said."

"Should it wind down in a week or two, its economic effects would be minor and short-lived. Yet a longer war that pushed oil past $100 a barrel for an extended period would worsen inflation, at least temporarily, while slowing growth and intensifying Americans' unhappiness with the cost of essentials."

"A longer-lasting conflict, particularly one that closed down the Strait of Hormuz at the edge of the Persian Gulf, through which roughly 25% of the world's oil passes, could push oil past that $100 a barrel mark. Gas prices in the U.S. could then reach $3.50 a gallon, up from just under $3 on average nationwide."

Recent U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran introduce additional economic risks to an already fragile American economy facing tariffs, weak hiring, and inflation pressures. Oil prices rose significantly following the attacks, with benchmark crude climbing 6.3% to $71.23 and Brent crude reaching $77.74 per barrel. Short-term economic effects would be minimal if the conflict resolves quickly, but prolonged warfare could push oil above $100 per barrel, raising gas prices to $3.50 per gallon and worsening inflation while slowing economic growth. Stock markets initially fell but recovered, suggesting investor optimism about a brief conflict. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of global oil passes, represents a significant tail risk that could substantially impact U.S. inflation and economic performance.

Read at Fast Company