AI is transforming the US job market, with young tech workers bearing the brunt. The tech sector's employment peaked in November 2022 and has since declined below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate for 20- to 30-year-olds in tech has surged by nearly 3 percentage points since early 2024, significantly higher than the overall jobless rate increase. Goldman Sachs predicts AI will displace 6-7% of US workers over the next decade but expects a manageable impact on unemployment as displaced workers enter other industries.
Goldman's analysis shows that the tech sector's share of the US employment market peaked in November 2022 - when ChatGPT was launched - and has since fallen below its long-term trend.
The unemployment rate for 20- to 30-year-olds in tech has risen by nearly 3 percentage points since early 2024, over four times the increase in the overall jobless rate.
While this is still a small share of the overall US labor market, we estimate that generative AI will eventually displace 6-7% of all US workers.
Friday's jobs numbers reinforced our view that US growth is near stall speed - a pace below which the labor market weakens in a significant way.
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