Anti-Trans Campaign Against Spanberger in Virginia Gov Race Is Failing. Poll Shows Why: People Don't Care

"The Virginia governor's race is heating up, and one topic has been front and center in the political ad wars: transgender issues. The contest pits Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger against current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. While Spanberger has centered her campaign on the economic fallout of federal cuts and the rising cost of living for Virginia families, Earle-Sears has saturated the airwaves with millions of dollars in anti-trans ads."

"Among independent voters, the gap widens even further, with Spanberger up by 19 points. The poll also offers important insight into why Spanberger may be pulling ahead. When asked about the issues that have played an outsized role in this campaign, large majorities ranked the economy, education, and healthcare as top concerns, with between 80 and 90 percent saying these issues were important."

"When looking at the crosstabs, the dynamic becomes clearer: transgender issues are unlikely to drive the outcome in Virginia in the direction of Earle-Sears. While a majority of voters overall find the issue unimportant, those who do prioritize it are not necessarily aligned with Earle-Sears. Many of them likely consider it important because they support transgender rights. In fact, 56 percent of Democrats said transgender issues are important - a higher share than Republicans."

Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 10 points overall and by 19 points among independents, according to a Hill/Emerson College poll. Large majorities of voters rate the economy, education, and healthcare as top concerns, with between 80 and 90 percent calling those issues important. By contrast, a majority of respondents call transgender issues unimportant, the only issue to receive that rating. Fifty-six percent of Democrats say transgender issues are important, a higher share than Republicans, while 61 percent of independents call the issue unimportant. Heavy anti-trans advertising by Earle-Sears has not translated into broader voter concern.

Read at Advocate.com