Californians' economic hopes drop 23% since Trump election

"Californians are so spooked about their economic futures that one measure of their collective financial outlook is down 23% since Donald Trump captured his second White House stint. My trusty spreadsheet found a muddied monetary perspective in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for California, which is calculated from public polling. High anxiety is seen when measuring average results for the three months ending in October and the same period 12 months earlier, just before Trump won the presidential election."

"The most striking change is the 23% slide in the "expectations" slice of the confidence index - basically, the Californian view of the financial future. That put this yardstick of economic hopes 16% below its average since 2007. A glum outlook is the key reason the statewide confidence index is down 18% in the past year, falling to a level that's 7% below average."

"California's global orientation doesn't align well with Trump's domestically focused policies. The Golden State economy - the nation's largest and the fifth-largest globally - struggles with the new administration's immigration crackdowns and heightened trade tensions stemming from tariff battles. This year, Californians have seen job growth cool, pay raises shrink and inflation rekindle. Contemplate the third leg of this optimism measurement - the "present situation." The index tracking California's feelings about current conditions is off by a relatively modest 13% year over year. Yet it remains 5% above average."

California's expectations component of consumer confidence fell 23% since Donald Trump's return to the White House, placing that measure 16% below its 2007 average. The statewide confidence index dropped 18% in the past year and sits 7% below its average. The present-situation component is down 13% year over year but remains about 5% above its long-term average. California's globally oriented economy faces headwinds from immigration crackdowns and tariff-driven trade tensions. Job growth has cooled, pay increases have weakened, and inflation has reemerged. U.S. expectations also declined, though national confidence remains above its 19-year average.

Read at The Mercury News