"Since early October, Jones has been fighting for his political life following revelations that he exchanged violent, profanity-laced text messages with Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner in 2022 that targeted then House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The scandal has dominated headlines, turning what once looked like a clear Democratic advantage into one of the closest statewide contests on the ballot. Polls that had Jones up by several points over Republican incumbent Jason Miyares now show Miyares tied or narrowly ahead."
""Jones's fate is dependent on Spanberger winning by double digits or close to double digits for him to have a chance," says longtime political analyst Bob Holsworth, managing partner at the Richmond consulting firm DecideSmart. In recent weeks, Holsworth says, Republicans have concentrated on protecting Miyares and keeping Jones on defense, portraying him as soft on crime, then resurfacing a reckless-driving ticket, and amplifying the text scandal to define his candidacy."
""It's been a very effective campaign," he says. Holsworth expects the fallout to hit hardest among suburban and moderate Democrats, particularly around Richmond and Hampton Roads, where Miyares's Virginia Beach roots could help him peel off voters. "There's some Democrats who will vote for Spanberger and vote for Miyares as well," Holsworth says. "They can't stand Trump, they like Spanberger, but they're morally repulsed by what happened with Jones.""
Polls initially showed Democrats poised to win Virginia's top offices, with Abigail Spanberger leading the governor's race and Jay Jones ahead of Jason Miyares in the attorney general contest. Since early October, Jones has been under fire after revelations he exchanged violent, profanity-laced text messages targeting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert, turning his comfortable lead into a close race. Republicans have focused on protecting Miyares by defining Jones as soft on crime, resurfacing a reckless-driving ticket, and amplifying the text scandal. Analysts expect the scandal to erode support among suburban and moderate Democrats, creating the possibility of split-ticket voting.
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