"Yeah, I disagree entirely. I think that the house is on fire and he's [Scalise] like the dog saying, This is fine.' Take a look at this. It's all about the margins, baby. Look, Democratic candidates' margins. In 2024 prez, in New Jersey, Kamala Harris won by six. What happened on Tuesday? Well, right now, Mikie Sherrill is ahead by 13, that might be 14 very quickly. We're talking about a shift of at least seven points, upwards of eight."
"How about in Virginia? We had Kamala Harris winning by six, what do we have Abigail Spanberger winning by? Winning by 15. We're talking about a shift of about nine points. If we had, let's say, an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats from the 2024 prez result, to then what happens in the 2026 House elections, you would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats, depending on redistricting."
Special-election and local results show Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential margins by roughly seven to nine points in several districts, including New Jersey and Virginia. Mikie Sherrill leads by about 13–14 points in a New Jersey district where Kamala Harris won by six in 2024. Abigail Spanberger is winning by about 15 points in a Virginia district where Harris won by six. An average eight-point shift across comparable House seats could translate to roughly a 20-seat Democratic gain in the 2026 House elections, subject to redistricting. These shifts typically forecast midterm difficulties for the Republican Party.
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