Projected new international enrollments in the U.S. may decline by 150,000 students, resulting in a 15% decrease in overall international student enrollment. This drop is estimated to cause a loss of $7 billion in revenue and the elimination of 60,000 jobs. Factors contributing to this decline include changes in visa processing protocols, particularly during the peak issuance season. Limited visa appointment availability for students from key countries has also exacerbated the situation, prompting urgent calls for actions to facilitate international student arrivals.
"This analysis ... should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on U.S. campuses this fall," said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA. "For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world."
The modeling is based on data from the Department of Homeland Security's SEVIS By the Numbers and State Department's Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs Annual J-1 Exchange Visitor Report, as well as State's Monthly Nonimmigrant Visa Issuance Statistics, available through May 2025.
NAFSA attributes the projected decline to recent changes to international student visa processing under the Trump administration. The State Department paused student visa interviews between May 27 and June 18, during peak issuance season.
Member institutions have reported there are limited or no appointments available for their international students in China, India, Japan and Nigeria, which are among the top countries of origin for international students studying in the U.S.
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