"OPINION - The global terrorism landscape in 2026 - the 25 th anniversary year of the 9/11 terrorism attacks - is more uncertain, hybridized, and combustible than at any point since 9/11. Framing a sound U.S. counterterrorism strategy - especially in the second year of a Trump administration - will require more than isolated strikes against ISIS in Nigeria, punitive counterterrorism operations in Syria, or a tougher rhetorical posture."
"A Trump administration counterterrorism strategy will require legitimacy: the domestic, international, and legal credibility that leverages a wide-range of counterterrorism tools, while engendering international counterterrorism cooperation. Without legitimacy, even tactically successful counterterrorism operations risk becoming illusory, politicized, and ultimately self-defeating. The terrorist threat landscape Extremist violence no longer conforms to clean ideological lines. Terrorist objectives and drivers are muddled in ways that are hard to understand - but evolving. There's little ideological purity with those radicalizing in today's extremist milieu."
"At the same time, state-directed intelligence officers increasingly behave like terrorists. Russian intelligence-linked sabotage plots blur the line between terrorism and hybrid warfare. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers provide hands-on training to Lebanese Hizballah commanders. Addressing these kinds of risks requires legitimacy, too, especially among allies whose intelligence cooperation, legal authorities, and public support are indispensable. Nowhere is this threat picture more tenuous than in the Middle East. Hamas's October 7, 2023, attacks triggered a profound rebalancing of power in the region. Yet, Syria remains unfinished business. Power vacuums there invite foreign jihadists, threaten Israel's border communities, and create future opportunities for Iranian influence to rebound."
The global terrorism landscape in 2026 is more uncertain, hybridized, and combustible than at any point since 9/11. Effective U.S. counterterrorism requires legitimacy across domestic, international, and legal domains to leverage diverse tools and secure allied cooperation. Extremist violence no longer follows clean ideological lines, and radicalization displays little ideological purity. State-directed intelligence actions increasingly resemble terrorism, with sabotage and hands-on militia training blurring traditional distinctions. The Middle East remains particularly tenuous after Hamas's October 7, 2023 attacks. Syria continues to present unfinished business where power vacuums invite foreign jihadists and enable potential Iranian influence to rebound.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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