Voter-registration data reveal a sustained exodus of long-term Democratic identifiers, not merely a shortfall in new registrants. Across states that track party registration, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every tracked state between 2020 and 2024, shedding over two million registered voters while Republicans gained approximately 2.4 million, producing a four-year swing near 4.5 million votes. The attrition includes previously reliable groups such as young, Black, and Latino voters who backed Biden in 2020 but swung toward Trump in 2024. The pattern is persistent month after month, signaling erosion of the Democratic base rather than transient electoral shifts.
The measure of a political party's failure lies not in how many agnostics and opponents it fails to convert, but in how many loyalists it fails to preserve. The endorsement of new, unnatural voters Latinos in the US for Donald Trump, or Tories voting for Labour for the first time might deliver big electoral swings but is ultimately not sticky. And these votes are only meaningful if the bedrock is solid.
The Democratic party has been haemorrhaging voters since way before election day. In the states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost to Republicans in all of them in the years between 2020 and 2024. By the time Kamala Harris took over from Joe Biden, the party had already shed more than 2m votes in those states, and Republicans had gained 2.4m. This is part of a four-year swing that amounts to 4.5m votes.
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