"State of play: Deaths are projected to start exceeding births in 2031, two years earlier than previously projected, as a result of the White House crackdown, plus increased funding for immigration enforcement in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, leaving fewer immigrant families to have children and add to the population. At that point immigration would be the main driver of new population growth instead of births."
"Catch up quick: The CBO had already revised down its growth projections in January, after the Biden administration cut back on immigration. But the nonpartisan agency's latest estimates take into account the current administration's more aggressive recent actions, as well as the new legislation. Zoom in: The CBO is now projecting that 290,000 immigrants will be "removed" from from the country, due to the new law, from 2026 - 2029. Another 30,000 would leave voluntarily."
Deaths are expected to exceed births by 2031, two years earlier than prior projections, driven by a White House crackdown and increased immigration enforcement funding that reduce immigrant family growth. Immigration would become the primary source of population increase rather than births. Fertility rates have declined slightly more than anticipated, per the CDC. The CBO revised growth projections downward, estimating 290,000 immigrants will be removed between 2026 and 2029 and 30,000 more will leave voluntarily. The population is now projected to reach 367 million by 2055, with fewer working-age people and potential slower economic growth; projections remain highly uncertain and policy-sensitive.
Read at Axios
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