U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record

"The Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles data from 570 law enforcement agencies, shows a nearly a 20% decline in murders this year compared with the same period in 2024. The database, which Asher used in his analysis, does not consider manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, or "accidental killings" for the statistics, according to its online glossary. The database's statistics are currently available through October."

"Other major crime categories measured by the index were also down nationwide and across locations of all population sizes, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%) and robbery (18.3%). By the numbers: New York City and Memphis recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders compared with 2024, and Chicago saw them fall almost 28%. New Orleans saw a decline of 7.5%, while Los Angeles County recorded murders dropping by nearly 19%."

"Yes, but: A few cities saw spikes in murder rates this year. Both Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, reported increases of 600%, the index says. State of play: President Trump has prioritized cracking down on violent crime in his second term, though there is no clear evidence linking his policies to the decline. Crime rates have been declining since 2021, according to data from both the RTCI and FBI."

The Real-Time Crime Index, compiled from 570 law enforcement agencies, records nearly a 20% decline in murders this year compared with the same period in 2024. The database excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, and "accidental killings" from the homicide count and currently contains data through October. Other major crime categories fell nationwide, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%), and robbery (18.3%). Several large cities experienced substantial drops while a few localities reported large increases. Homicide rates have been declining since 2021. National Guard deployments have occurred, though no clear evidence links policies to the decline.

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