"This past season though, he quickly declined. One potential explanation was his sharp decrease in velocity. According to Pitch Profiler, his average fastball velocity was 93.9 miles per hour. This year, it dropped to 92.4. Correspondingly, his strikeout rate dropped from 20.3 percent to 15.8 percent. With less velocity on his fastball, Irvin's stuff led to contact and did not get Major League hitters out with success."
"Despite the significant decrease in Irvin's velocity, he still has the potential to succeed. He has the potential to return to the track of pitching effectively. While Irvin's stuff was worse this past season, it still should have been good enough for him to be successful. Statistics like stuff plus look to determine the raw quality of a pitcher's repertoire, holding all other factors constant. They measure things like pure velocity and movement, and they report that Irvin is a league average pitcher."
Jake Irvin posted a 5.70 ERA and -0.4 WAR in 33 starts in 2024, the worst ERA among qualified pitchers. He showed serviceable performance in prior seasons, including a 4.61 ERA in 121 innings (2023) and a 4.41 ERA in 187.2 innings (2024). A drop in average fastball velocity from 93.9 to 92.4 mph coincided with a strikeout rate decline from 20.3% to 15.8%, producing more contact. Stuff-plus metrics rate him as a league-average pitcher, indicating his raw arsenal remains adequate. Increasing slider usage could leverage his only above-average pitch and improve outcomes.
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