How the Conflict in Sudan Became a Humanitarian Catastrophe

"But the alliance between the Sudanese Armed Forces ( SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the R.S.F., led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, quickly crumbled, and by April of 2023, the two sides were openly at war. For two and a half years, that conflict has become a humanitarian catastrophe, with an estimated death toll in the hundreds of thousands, and possibly as many as four hundred thousand. More than ten million have been internally and externally displaced."

"The Sudanese military still controls much of the north and east of the country, and is backed principally by Egypt; the R.S.F., which was accused of genocide by the Biden Administration in January, is backed by the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.). It operates in the west, where it has recently taken control of the city of El Fasher, after a five-hundred-day siege."

"the role that outside actors have played in it, I recently spoke by phone with Kholood Khair, the founding director of the Confluence Advisory, which focusses on issues of governance and security in Sudan. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why the U.A.E. has gone to such lengths to back the R.S.F., how the war has scrambled alliances in the region, and how the war's leaders turned the conflict into an ethnic struggle."

Sudan experienced a 2021 coup by the military with the Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.), but the alliance collapsed and open fighting began in April 2023. The two-and-a-half-year conflict became a humanitarian catastrophe with estimated deaths in the hundreds of thousands, possibly up to four hundred thousand, and more than ten million displaced. The Sudanese Armed Forces control much of the north and east and are backed by Egypt. The R.S.F., accused of genocide by the U.S. administration, is backed by the United Arab Emirates and operates in the west, recently capturing El Fasher after a five-hundred-day siege. Satellite imagery and open-source reporting show very high civilian fatalities in El Fasher in late October and early November.

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