
"They triggered the United Nations' crippling "snapback" sanctions, as American hawks had been demanding for years. Iranian officials had tried to avert these sanctions. When sanctions came anyway, those officials minimized their effect by saying that Iran had survived sanctions before. But these are bringing new kinds of pain. Japan has already suspended dozens of Iranian assets. Even Turkey, traditionally a close economic partner, is complying. The Iranian rial has sunk to a historic low."
"The combination punch of berubblement and economic devastation is making Iran desperate. Although it still has options, all of them are bad. Iran's previous nuclear strategy was slow-and-steady enrichment of uranium, paired with languorous and protracted negotiation with the United States. It struck a nuclear deal with the Obama administration in 2015, then watched the Trump administration withdraw in 2018. The strategy of negotiation has failed Iran and left it with no bomb, humiliated in battle, and facing immiseration."
"Call this the Libya option, after Muammar Qaddafi's renunciation of his nuclear program in 2003. The limits of the Libyan option's appeal are evident when one considers Qaddafi's fate, which was to be deposed, poked in the backside with a piece of steel, and shot in the head. From the October 2025 issue: The neighbor from Hell More appealing is the relative calm of North Korea, whose combined nuclear and conventional deterrent shows no sign of weakness."
Israel bombed Iran for 12 days, culminating in apparent destruction of three Iranian nuclear facilities in US strikes. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany activated UN "snapback" sanctions, prompting asset freezes by Japan and compliance from Turkey and other partners and driving the Iranian rial to historic lows. Economic devastation and bombardment have left Iran desperate with no appealing options. Iran's previous strategy of gradual enrichment plus prolonged negotiation produced a 2015 deal later abandoned by the United States, leaving Iran without a bomb and politically weakened. Potential paths include surrender, nuclear breakout, or deepening immiseration.
Read at The Atlantic
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