Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse?

"History suggests that regimes collapse not from single failures but from a fatal confluence of stressors. One of us, Jack, has written at length about the five specific conditions necessary for a revolution to succeed: a fiscal crisis, divided elites, a diverse oppositional coalition, a convincing narrative of resistance, and a favorable international environment. This winter, for the first time since 1979, Iran checks nearly all five boxes."

"Iran's inflation rates-more than 50 percent across the board, 70 percent for food-are among the world's highest. Over the past year, Iran's currency has fallen more than 80 percent relative to the dollar. In 1979, a single U.S. dollar was worth 70 Iranian rials; today, it's worth 1.47 million rials, a depreciation of more than 99 percent. Iranian currency has become less a medium of exchange than a daily index of national despair."

For the first time since 1979, Iran meets nearly all five conditions associated with successful revolutions: fiscal crisis, divided elites, a diverse oppositional coalition, a convincing narrative of resistance, and a favorable international environment. Widespread protests have erupted across cities as inflation exceeds 50 percent overall and 70 percent for food, and the currency has depreciated by over 99 percent since 1979. Economic pain spans all classes, affecting merchants and the well-off as well as the poor. The country faces isolation from global finance, renewed sanctions, plunging oil revenue, endemic corruption, mismanagement, brain drain, high youth unemployment, and insolvent pensions.

Read at The Atlantic