"Unlike the last attack in June 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has not only threatened to destroy Iran's nuclear program, but has also spoken of regime change, prompting Tehran to adopt survival mode. In the face of U.S. military power, Tehran is weighing options such as attacking U.S. bases and troops in the Middle East where between 40,000 and 50,000 personnel are deployed, launching an offensive against Israel, or against the U.S.-allied monarchies in the Persian Gulf."
"The Gulf countries are very nervous because they know it is they who will be left to clean up the damage and to bear the consequences, both in their markets and in domestic public opinion, says Negah Angha, a visiting researcher at King's College London and a former political adviser at the United States National Security Council during the presidency of Joe Biden."
"Twenty percent of the world's oil production passes every day through the Strait of Hormuz, within range of attacks by the Houthis in Yemen, or by Iran itself. In December 2024, the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former commander of the local branch of Al-Qaeda, to the presidency in Syria broke the Shiite axis that linked the country with Iran."
Following U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, the Middle East faces potential escalation into a prolonged conflict. Unlike previous June 2025 actions, Trump administration rhetoric now includes regime change threats, pushing Iran into survival mode. Tehran has multiple response options including attacks on U.S. military personnel stationed across the region, offensive operations against Israel or Gulf monarchies, and disruption of critical oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf states face particular anxiety about bearing economic and political consequences. Syria's political realignment under new leadership has fractured the Iran-aligned resistance axis, further complicating regional dynamics and reducing U.S. troop presence.
#iran-us-military-conflict #middle-east-regional-security #strait-of-hormuz-oil-trade #syrian-political-realignment #gulf-state-vulnerabilities
Read at english.elpais.com
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