The three clocks of the Iran war

"In January 2025, Donald Trump returned to office with a philosophy of rapid-fire diplomacy, prioritising the art of the deal over the machinery of war. He genuinely believed that a sharp, decisive shock to Iran's leadership would produce regime collapse within days, an expectation apparently reinforced by the Mossad and Netanyahu."

"When that quick victory failed to materialise, the US found itself in a war of attrition in which time is on Iran's side. The problem is structural: Iran holds substantial leverage over the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz and its continued ability to penetrate Gulf states' and Israeli air defences."

"The domestic political cost is already severe. US crude oil jumped past $90 per barrel, up from $67 the day before the war broke out. Inflation climbed at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in March, with gasoline prices rising 21.2 percent."

"Trump's approval rating on the economy has hit an all-time low of 29 percent, and even 40 percent of Republicans now disapprove of his handling of inflation and rising prices."

Trump's return to office in January 2025 initiated a rapid-fire diplomatic approach towards Iran, aiming for a quick regime collapse. However, this strategy failed, resulting in a war of attrition that favored Iran. The US faced significant economic repercussions, with crude oil prices surging and inflation rising sharply. Trump's approval ratings plummeted, particularly regarding his handling of the economy, as he approached the midterm elections in a vulnerable political position.

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