"The smallest number he gave to Fortune when asked about the cost to taxpayers of Epic Fury was $40 billion, for the smallest estimate of the direct budgetary cost, in a range that goes up to $95 billion. He said PWBM assumes more upside risk in the Epic Fury scenario, so a $65 billion direct hit to taxpayers is the likely cost for direct military operations as well as the replacement of equipment, munitions, and other supplies."
"On top of direct military expenditures, Smetters projected an additional economic loss to the United States alone of approximately $115 billion, with a wide band of uncertainty stretching from $50 billion all the way to $210 billion. That broader economic impact accounts for disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions."
"Smetters, whose model is widely used in Washington D.C. to analyze the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of federal policy, has Beltway policy chops including a stint as an economist at the Congressional Budget Office and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Treasury."
Operation Epic Fury, a U.S. military campaign against Iran conducted with Israel, is projected to impose significant financial costs on American taxpayers. Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and a leading fiscal analyst, estimates direct budgetary costs between $40 billion and $95 billion, with a likely figure of $65 billion for military operations and equipment replacement. Beyond direct expenditures, additional economic losses could reach approximately $115 billion, with uncertainty ranging from $50 billion to $210 billion. These broader economic impacts stem from disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions. Costs escalate if military operations extend beyond two months, with greater upside risk than downside risk in the projections.
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