With few good strategic options, Iran's best prospect may be to retaliate while it can

"The most significant attack was on Khamenei's compound in Tehran. Film on social media showed heavy plumes of smoke emerging from the site in the capital following the daylight strike, and soon after satellite imagery showed it had been destroyed in what appeared to be a targeted attack. Khamenei's fate remains uncertain, but its intention was: an attempt to effect regime change in Iran through bombing and killing with no credible justification in international law."

"Last summer during the 12-day war with Israel, Khamenei had named three potential successors should he be killed. Reports earlier this month indicated that Khamenei had named four layers of succession for key government and military jobs, in an effort to ensure regime survival in the face of a US-Israeli attack."

"There is no sign that the US or anybody else is going to put boots on the ground, so the monopoly of force domestically remains with the Iranian regime. The only way that changes [is] if there is an uprising with mass defections."

The US and Israel launched a coordinated military assault on Iran, with the most significant attack targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran. Explosions struck multiple Iranian cities including Isfahan, Kermanshah, and Qom in a broad daylight offensive, a deliberate departure from typical nighttime strikes. Hundreds of targets were hit across multiple waves, including military sites and air defense systems, with Iran's depleted defenses offering minimal resistance. Khamenei's fate remains uncertain, but the operation represented an attempt at regime change through targeted killing. Iran had previously established succession plans with multiple layers of leadership continuity to ensure regime survival. Without ground forces or mass domestic uprisings, Iran's monopoly on force domestically remains intact, suggesting uncertain outcomes despite the extensive bombing campaign.

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