"There is no history ... that shows an air campaign alone will result in positive regime change. In fact, there's not a single example of it in the entirety of American history. An air campaign without at least the threat of a ground invasion, which the administration is ruling out, never results in a democratic rebirth in an authoritarian country."
"Airpower can have devastating effects, but without ground troops - or the clear threat of invasion - we have not seen regime change."
Following Trump's air attacks on Iran in February, debate emerged over whether airstrikes alone can achieve regime change. Senator Chris Murphy and most military experts and historians argue that air campaigns have never successfully produced democratic regime change in authoritarian nations without ground troops or the threat of invasion. Murphy cited the absence of any historical precedent in American history for successful regime change through air power alone. While Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth left open the possibility of ground troops, experts like Barbara Slavin from the Stimson Center emphasized that airpower, despite its destructive capability, requires ground forces or invasion threats to achieve regime change. A few experts offered limited counterexamples, but other experts disputed their interpretations.
Read at Poynter
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