Four years into the Ukraine war, Moscow sees vindication, not failure

"What many in the West perceived as a strategic blunder is increasingly seen in Moscow as a costly but necessary and ultimately successful gamble. As the all-out war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Russian political elites remain convinced that their leader, Vladimir Putin, did not make a grave error by launching it in February 2022. Instead, they are looking back with a sense of achievement, and they have good reason to believe that the war is ending on their terms, perhaps even soon."

"The true Russian motives are far more ad hoc and pragmatic. In general terms, they boil down to drawing a very firm red line against NATO's expansion towards Russia's borders, which, instead of envisaging the eventual integration of Russia itself, was clearly aimed at Russia's isolation and containment."

"The close symbiosis between these security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists who service the military-industrial complex is a lucrative joint venture that rewards both parties with money and power. In Russia's case, the all-out conflict in Ukraine which most Russians see as a proxy war with NATO allowed securocratic elites to eliminate the pro-Western liberal opposition that threatened their political hegemony."

Russian leadership views the Ukraine conflict, now in its fifth year, as a necessary and ultimately successful operation rather than a strategic error. Moscow's primary motives center on establishing a firm boundary against NATO expansion toward Russian borders, which they perceive as aimed at isolation and containment rather than integration. The conflict has served multiple purposes for Russia's security-oriented elites: eliminating pro-Western liberal opposition, consolidating political control, and benefiting from Western military-industrial complex engagement. A significant factor involves the symbiotic relationship between Russian securocratic elements and Western hawkish lobbyists, creating mutual financial and political benefits. Additionally, the conflict emerged from specific events between 2019-2021 when Ukrainian President Zelenskyy initially pursued rapprochement with Russia, creating diplomatic opportunities that subsequently shifted.

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