How Iran fights an imposed war

"Rather than seeking outright victory, Tehran's priority is to ensure that any attempt to overthrow it carries prohibitive regional and global costs. Iran's preference for avoiding direct military confrontation has also been evident in its dealings with Western powers."

"Despite its rhetoric and displays of military preparedness, the country's political and military leadership has historically sought to avoid direct war because of its heavy political and economic costs. This pattern also reflects a deeper tendency within the leadership: An aversion to situations that take them by surprise or for which they feel unprepared."

"Iranian leaders identify three conflicts in these terms: The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the Twelve-Day War launched by Israel in June 2025 and later joined by the United States, and the current war that began on February 28, 2026, when Israel and the US launched attacks on Iran."

Iran's political and military leadership has historically avoided direct warfare due to heavy political and economic costs, preferring instead to deter external threats by raising regional and global costs of any attempt to overthrow the regime. Iranian discourse frames major conflicts as imposed wars forced by external powers rather than chosen by Tehran, including the Iran-Iraq War, the 2025 Twelve-Day War with Israel and the US, and the 2026 conflict. This strategic aversion to direct confrontation reflects deeper tendencies within leadership, including discomfort with surprise situations and unprepared circumstances, evident in confused responses to the Arab Spring and October 7 Hamas attack. Iran's preference for negotiation over military engagement appears in its nuclear programme dealings, engaging European powers and the P5+1 group through diplomatic channels rather than military escalation.

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