In War, the Enemy Always Gets a Vote

"Military planners have pointed out for decades that the waterway-through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes-is highly vulnerable to Iranian assault. But the Trump administration acknowledged in classified briefings, CNN reported last night, that it did not make provisions for a closure because officials assumed that such a move would hurt Iran more than the United States."

"In its failure to anticipate Iran's reaction, the administration ignored a dynamic that former Defense Secretary James Mattis, a first-term Trump appointee, was fond of pointing out: Once hostilities begin, 'the enemy gets a vote.' U.S. leaders have drastically underestimated the Iranian regime's ability to survive, adjust, and strike back."

"Iran has multiple ways to imperil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The country is a major producer of cheap aerial drones-which Russia has used to deadly effect against Ukraine over the past four years. Iran also seems to be using sea drones and, according to some reports, may be laying mines in the strait."

The Trump administration was unprepared when Iran retaliated against U.S. and Israeli air assaults by targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Military planners have long identified this waterway, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes, as highly vulnerable to Iranian action. Officials assumed such Iranian moves would harm Iran more than the United States, leading them to ignore this critical threat. The administration underestimated Iran's ability to survive, adapt, and counterattack. Iran employs multiple methods to threaten vessels, including cheap aerial drones, sea drones, and potentially mines. These systems are small and transportable, making them difficult to track and neutralize despite constant air patrols.

Read at The Atlantic