Is southern Yemen's next phase being decided on the ground?

"Security fragmentation, regional rivalries and stalled military integration are reshaping authority in government-controlled southern governorates. It is no longer possible to interpret the Yemeni landscape solely through the lens of politics. The developments witnessed in the southern Yemeni governorates under government control in recent months clearly indicate that security and military affairs have become the decisive factor in determining the course of power on the ground."

"Over the past years, a complex security structure has taken shape across the southern governorates, comprising official units and others that emerged during the war. Some of these units are linked to state institutions, while others were established with Emirati support, such as the Southern Transitional Council's forces, which number in the tens of thousands, or through local arrangements shaped by the circumstances of the conflict."

Security fragmentation, regional rivalries and stalled military integration are shifting authority across government-controlled southern governorates. Security and military affairs determine power on the ground, making unified security control and a single military command essential for sustainable governance. The Saudi–Emirati rift between two influential allies directly affects the balance of power and stability in the south. A complex security landscape has emerged, combining state units, Emirati-backed formations like the Southern Transitional Council forces, and locally formed groups. The STC declared dissolution in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra on January 3, 2026, but its formations have been redeployed, diminished, or remain unaccounted for. Aden's security apparatus remains fragmented and fluid.

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