"Imagine you're a real estate developer. Imagine you're trying to entice North Korea to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons. What do you offer? You tell Kim Jung Un that North Korea has awesome economic potential if only it would give up its nukes. Sadly, Kim doesn't think like a real estate developer. Being a dictator is pretty cool; the United States can't be trusted to stay away if North Korea gives up its nukes; the nukes aren't going anywhere."
"If the Palestinians were willing, then the United States could come into the Gaza Strip, move the Gazans out, and build hotels along the beaches. It's great for everyone! Gazans could live in nice homes, and the Strip would become the Riviera of the Middle East! Sadly, Hamas doesn't think like a real estate developer. The struggle in the Middle East is a centuries-long religious battle; building hotels is not the same as eliminating the Little Satan; one can't directly trade money for peace."
"Russia has great economic potential. If Russia would agree to a peace deal, on pretty favorable terms, the U.S. and Russia could do some joint economic development projects that would make the autocrats in Russia, the Epstein class in the United States, and probably Putin and Trump (although maybe I repeat myself) much richer. How about it, Vlad? Sadly, Putin doesn't think like a real estate developer."
Real estate-style economic incentives are proposed as bargaining chips to persuade North Korea, Hamas, and Russia to make peace. Promises include urban development, tourism, and joint economic projects tied to disarmament or withdrawal. Each target resists because of non-economic priorities: regime survival and distrust of foreign intervention in North Korea; centuries-long religious and political struggle for Hamas that rejects monetary tradeoffs; and Russia's historical claims over Ukrainian territory rooted in Kievan Rus and Orthodox identity. Historical identity, ideological commitments, and security concerns outweigh development offers, making purely economic deals unlikely to resolve these conflicts.
#economic-incentives #nuclear-nonproliferation #authoritarian-motivations #middle-east-and-russia-conflicts
Read at Above the Law
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