"Picture this: It's 1933. The League of Nations is struggling for legitimacy as Germany and Japan withdraw, driven by swelling imperial ambitions. The international order is fracturing, giving way to what Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio calls "the law of the jungle," where raw power, not diplomacy, determines global outcomes. Dalio predicts we're headed in that direction. The billionaire investor made an X (formerly Twitter) post Saturday titled "It's Official: The World Order Has Broken Down," pronouncing the modern global order dead."
""There is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers," Dalio wrote in his X post, referencing his 2021 book Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order. In his book, he evaluates 500 years of human history to explain why some empires succeed and others fail, describing a six-stage, 80-year cycle that tracks the evolution of monetary policy and international order."
The modern international order is collapsing, with rules weakening and power politics ascending. Historical precedents show how withdrawals and imperial ambitions erode institutional legitimacy. Current dynamics feature rising disorder and "wrecking-ball politics," where sweeping destruction replaces careful reforms. Great-power rivalry and absence of agreed rules are producing heightened instability and a growing risk of violent confrontation. Long historical cycles track empire rise and fall across roughly eighty years, with late stages marked by financial strain, internal conflict, and potential revolutionary or wartime outcomes. Present indicators suggest an advanced phase of systemic stress.
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