#bundesbank-forecast

#bundesbank-forecast

The most senior officials from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are expected to take part in a desktop stress test to respond to another Lehman Brothers-style collapse.

It's obviously welcome to see savings rates go up. Albeit from a low enough base. Several new providers such as Moco, Monzo, and Bankinter are all now quite active in the savings space in Ireland, so this is perhaps a response to increased competition.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global markets and oil prices, adding a persistent layer of uncertainty for UK firms. This geopolitical instability is driving higher cost pressures and intensifying concerns around supply chains and energy security, all of which are critical factors in strategic business decision making.

Monthly job growth averaged about 15,000 in 2025 and has risen to roughly 70,000 so far in 2026, although the data remains volatile and subject to revision.

Services experienced the highest annual increase at 3.4%, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.5%. Non-energy industrial goods saw a more modest increase of 0.7%. Meanwhile, energy prices fell by 3.1% over the month, which helped to temper overall inflation pressures.

Markets remain fragile amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about inflation in Europe. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, attention could turn to the ECB's forward guidance and assessment of energy-driven price risks.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rates unchanged following the February meeting of the Governing Council, in line with Cebr projections. This marks the fifth consecutive hold, despite a below-target inflation reading of 1.7% in January, the lowest level since 2021. The decision to hold rates also comes despite a recent Euro rally against the dollar, which is expected to add disinflationary pressure through cheaper imports and weigh on growth by making the bloc's exports more expensive.

In an incisive analysis of the new age of predatory great powers, where might is increasingly asserted as right, Carney not only accurately defined the coarsening of international relations as a rupture, not a transition. He also outlined how liberal democratic middle powers such as Canada but also European countries must build coalitions to counter coercion and defend as much as possible of the principles of territorial integrity, the rule of law, free trade, climate action and human rights.