#credit-downgrades

#credit-downgrades

The conflict has driven up the price of oil and natural gas; damaged oil refineries, tanker terminals and other energy infrastructure; disrupted shipments of fertiliser that the world's farmers depend on; and damaged the confidence of businesses and consumers.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

"Even before the conflict, I thought recession and risks were on the rise. Recession risks are very high—and unless the hostilities are coming to an end now, I think recession is more than likely by the second half of the year."

"The historical evidence reveals a striking pattern: government bonds have repeatedly generated substantial real losses during these extreme episodes. They have even underperformed equities and real estates which are traditionally regarded as risky assets."

Under the surface of soaring crude prices is the realization that the likelihood of Fed cuts later this year is quickly dwindling. Oil dominated the session. WTI crude has surged 33% over the past week, and Thursday added another 9.7% as Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

The move reflects a noticeable increase in market caution as investors begin to reprice rising macroeconomic risks. According to data from The Street, around 68% of stocks in the market declined in the latest session, while only about 28% advanced. This suggests that selling pressure was not limited to a few sectors but rather spread across the broader market, reflecting a state of broad risk-off selling.

The country is almost certain to enter the next shock more indebted than we have ever been before, which may significantly hamper our ability to marshal an appropriate response. The U.S. has never experienced an economic shock as indebted as we are today. This situation leaves the U.S. immensely vulnerable.

Citi acknowledges the deal carries expected accretion, but the firm's concern centers on execution risk and due diligence challenges. The core problem: disproving the bear thesis could take years, which creates a persistent overhang on the stock.

TD Cowen reduced estimates across the household and personal care space, arguing that companies will be unable to fully mitigate higher oil-related input costs stemming from the Iran war.

Investors were cautiously optimistic at the beginning of President Donald Trump's military campaign, largely betting that the conflict would be contained and that strong corporate earnings and a resilient economy would eventually reassert themselves. But that optimism appears to be fraying as the war drags on and energy markets remain under pressure.

Rising inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy signals, and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Oil prices surged following renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about inflationary pressure.

I have not touched a paper note for months. I don't even have money to pay for a taxi. Now we walk a lot, for long distances. Palestinians in Gaza use the Israeli currency, the shekel, in their daily transactions, and depend on Israel to supply banks with new banknotes and coins.