Labour strategists were desperate to say the party was on course to win, but the party's trouncing at the hands of the Greens has made this look laughable in hindsight. Hollie Ridley, Labour's general secretary, sent a note to No 10 at the end of January saying it was clearly a two-horse race with Reform UK, and only 3% of voters saying they would stick with the Greens.
But recent polling indicates that Democrats may not be able to count on the issue in their efforts to drive votes in the 2026 midterms, after making abortion rights the centerpiece of their pitch to voters in the elections that followed the fall of Roe v Wade. In 2024, 55% of Democrats said abortion was important to their vote, according to polling from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI).
Zoom in: Trump and establishment Republicans have been downplaying abortion rights as a top national issue since the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion in 2022 - a decision that antagonized many suburban swing voters. Last week, Hawley revealed to Axios' Stef Kight that he and his wife, Erin Hawley, a fellow constitutional lawyer, are launching a dark-money group called the Love Life Initiative.
Zohran Mamdani's election as mayor of New York City has thrust the US democratic socialist movement into the national spotlight. If Mamdani's triumphant affordability platform-which includes plans to provide universal childcare by increasing taxes on high-income earners-is implemented, it could lead to a significant transfer of wealth from the wealthy elite to the working class and provide a blueprint for socialist leaders across the country.
To that illustrious lineage, we can add the perennial spectacle of the Democratic establishment blanching before the prospect of a successful movement-driven populist campaign. The latest campaign in question, of course, is Zohran Mamdani's bid to be the next mayor of New York, and skittish party leaders are already declaring it a pox upon their efforts to recapture a House majority in the 2026
