#estimation-errors

#estimation-errors

Time pressure, limited information, confusion, fatigue, and mortality salience combine to set the stage for decision-making errors, sometimes with grave consequences. An example is the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by a missile launched by the USS Vincennes in 1988, resulting in the death of 290 passengers and crew. In a time of heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran, the captain of the Vincennes misidentified the airliner as an incoming hostile aircraft and ordered his crew to shoot it down.

On a clear night I set up my telescope in the yard and let the mount hum along while the camera gathers light from something distant and patient. The workflow is a ritual. Focus by eye until the airy disk tightens. Shoot test frames and watch the histogram. Capture darks, flats, and bias frames so the quirks of the sensor can be cleaned away later. That discipline is not fussy.

Weather impacts sales. Every retailer knows it. But for most, the likelihood that it might rain, snow, or sleet on the third of March somewhere in the Midwest is rarely used. Vendors such as Weather Trends have offered accurate, long-range forecasts for more than 20 years. But the opportunity is not predicting the weather; it's knowing what to do with the data. AI might change that.

When discussing their results, they tell us that Facebook's reporting or Google Analytics show the ad campaigns as barely breaking even. Yet they keep investing in this channel. They reason that Facebook can only see a fraction of the sales, so if Facebook is reporting a 1x return on ad spend (ROAS) then it's probably at least 2x in reality.

Before enterprises can deploy AI agents that actually work, they need something most organizations don't have: a single, authoritative source of truth.

Fifty-four seconds. That's how long it took Raphael Wimmer to write up an experiment that he did not actually perform, using a new artificial-intelligence tool called Prism, released by OpenAI last month. "Writing a paper has never been easier. Clogging the scientific publishing pipeline has never been easier," wrote Wimmer, a researcher in human-computer action at the University of Regensburg in Germany, on Bluesky. Large language models (LLMs) can suggest hypotheses, write code and draft papers, and AI agents are automating parts of the research process.

What happens under the hood? How is the search engine able to take that simple query, look for images in the billions, trillions of images that are available online? How is it able to find this one or similar photos from all that? Usually, there is an embedding model that is doing this work behind the hood.