#european-and-us-equities

#european-and-us-equities

"The current administration has signaled that it is very pro-business and wants to make it as easy as possible for these new fintech business models such as prediction markets and crypto to operate."

An email was sent to White House staff on 24 March, warning them against using insider information to place bets on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket.

"The start of the year has been extremely sluggish for German industry," said Elmar Voelker, an analyst at the bank LBBW, noting that "the fleeting hopes of a recovery that had emerged last autumn have evaporated for now."

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

Drivers will feel some short-term relief as petrol and diesel prices edge lower, and markets are reacting strongly to the pause. But oil remains elevated, and that continues to feed through the entire economy, into prices, business costs and investment decisions.

The sharp decline in oil prices following the announcement played a key role in lifting sentiment. Lower energy costs could help ease inflation pressures and support both consumer demand and corporate margins.

"It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession."

The conflict has driven up the price of oil and natural gas; damaged oil refineries, tanker terminals and other energy infrastructure; disrupted shipments of fertiliser that the world's farmers depend on; and damaged the confidence of businesses and consumers.

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA:EFA) tracks the MSCI EAFE Index, covering large- and mid-cap equities across developed markets in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East, explicitly excluding the US and Canada. The fund has been running since August 2001, carries $77.8 billion in assets, and charges 32 basis points annually. For a fund of this size and history, that cost is competitive.

Futures are exploding higher, as President Trump chose not to 'end civilization in Iran' and agreed to a two-week pause on attacks on Iran.

Gold keeps cranking higher with spot prices moving to a new all-time high a whisker off $4,640, while silver extended its parabolic rally to clear $90. Crude prices were at three-month highs with Brent (continuous) running into resistance at the 200-day moving average around $65.75, as flagged in yesterday's note. WTI spiked to $61.50 - as noted on Friday a clear break above $59 was likely to see a swift move toward the $60-61 area.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is the most widely held energy ETF in the U.S., with roughly $38 billion in net assets, spanning the full energy value chain.

The current pressure is largely driven by tensions in the Middle East, as signals from the U.S. and Iran remain conflicting. While the U.S. has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, Iran has firmly denied any talks, increasing uncertainty around the prospects of de-escalation.