#investment-freeze

#investment-freeze

The IEA sees global oil demand falling by 80,000 barrels per day this year, compared with a projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.

Both experts acknowledge the brewing trouble in the private credit sector, emphasizing that while risks are present, they do not believe a financial crisis is unavoidable.

U.S. equity markets delivered a strong performance over the past week, supported by improving geopolitical sentiment and renewed investor confidence, with all major indices recording gains exceeding 3%.

"This is a system shock," says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. "You have a material energy supply disruption and a structural shift toward fragmentation."

"According to my calculations, those first few days cost at least $16 billion. We are spending down munitions at an extraordinarily fast pace-to put it in perspective, we fired more Patriot missiles in the first four days of the Iran war than we have given to Ukraine over the past four years."

Take that flow out of the system and Brent doesn't move five or ten dollars, it moves structurally higher. A spike toward $120 or beyond becomes realistic very quickly, and that resets inflation expectations globally.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast as tensions between the United States and Iran have driven up energy and food costs globally. The IMF expected the global economy to grow by 3.1 percent this year, a slowdown from its earlier forecast of 3.3 percent.

The US dollar returned to the upside as geopolitical fears rebounded after US President Trump's address to the nation. The rhetoric fuelled risk aversion and flows toward the dollar while oil prices surged.

Instead of trying to predict whiplashing oil prices, consider investing in energy ETFs like the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF and First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure. These ETFs provide exposure to sectors such as pipelines and shipping, independent of oil price fluctuations.

Shipping costs have increased by more than 10 percent in the past month due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The 60-day waiver for the Jones Act aimed to lower energy costs but has had little impact on oil prices, which continue to rise amid the ongoing conflict.

China's exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains, according to Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French bank Natixis.

The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.