#mortgage-rates-and-treasury-yields

#mortgage-rates-and-treasury-yields

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.38% to 2.39% by early April 2026, topping levels not seen in over two decades and clearing the 2008 financial crisis peak by roughly 30 basis points.

The global impact of the war in Iran has caused the average price of gasoline in the United States to rise above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Prices have risen by more than 30% since late February, reflecting an energy shock affecting the entire economy.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is the most widely held energy ETF in the U.S., with roughly $38 billion in net assets, spanning the full energy value chain.

Employers added 178,000 jobs last month, much more than forecasters had expected, reversing big job losses in February and indicating a rebound in the labor market.

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

TLT holds U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years, collecting fixed semi-annual coupons that are passed through as monthly distributions.

HYBL attempts to solve the income problem by combining senior loans, high-yield corporate bonds, and debt tranches from U.S. collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The result is a portfolio with lower duration and lower volatility compared to traditional high-yield funds, while still targeting high current income with monthly distributions.

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

USHY seeks to track the investment results of the ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained Index, composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds, providing broad exposure in a low-cost wrapper.

The sharp rise in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns created significant pressure on both stocks and bonds, impacting investor sentiment and market dynamics.

Ginsburg stated that treating builder business as a core pillar rather than a side channel reflects a broader industry shift. He believes a healthy balance of builders should be around 15% to 20% of the overall retail book of business.

'Walmart Worries' just keep multiplying. It's currently close to the highest level ever recorded which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

The dominant force in play remains the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and inflation expectations firm. Reports that Washington is assembling a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could offer some relief for the oil market and could weigh on the dollar.

In my view, interest rates are more likely than not going to head lower over the course of 2026 and into 2027. I'm not saying we're due for a pandemic-like selloff, but I do think that weakness in the labor market is likely more protracted than the government data suggest. As such, I do think the makeup of the Federal Reserve, and which way many of its presidents and voting members lean (toward providing support for the labor market over battling inflation) could lead to much faster rate cuts than many think.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in December. Year-over-year the all-items index was up 2.7%, the same as it was in November. Shelter was the main contributor to the all-items index's monthly increase, rising 0.4% from a month prior. Other major contributors included the food index, which rose 0.7% and the energy index, which jumped 0.3%.