Alan Cole, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, took that bet, telling WSJ reporter Richard Rubin how and why he dropped $342,195.63 into a prediction-market wager on the Kalshi platform. Cole said that he looked at the terms of the Kalshi wager and saw an opportunity, because he did not believe anything Musk would do would significantly curtail spending on interest on the national debt or entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, especially as America's population continued to age.
The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is again turning up the pressure on prediction market operator Kalshi, this time tying its trademark concerns directly to March Madness, the association's signature men's and women's basketball tournaments. The NCAA claims that Kalshi has used its name, marks and event branding in ways that suggest an official link. March Madness is owned and controlled by the NCAA, and the association says any implication of endorsement or verification crosses a legal line.
A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations - and it may even be better than some traditional methods. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers," the researchers wrote.
Prediction markets aren't new. The CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades. They provide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks like increases in temperature and energy price spikes. They also serve as an important check on our news media and our information streams. Today, the CFTC is taking an important step to ensure that these markets have a place here in America and have the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy that our derivatives markets deserve.
