Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.
Polls and prediction markets show differing predictions for election outcomes, creating an ongoing debate about their accuracy and reliability.
Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning
The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.
Prediction markets go mainstream
Prediction markets are set to disrupt traditional news models by providing real-time insights and changing how news is valued and consumed.
U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's
Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.
Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.
Polls and prediction markets show differing predictions for election outcomes, creating an ongoing debate about their accuracy and reliability.
Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning
The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.
Prediction markets go mainstream
Prediction markets are set to disrupt traditional news models by providing real-time insights and changing how news is valued and consumed.
U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's
Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.
Betting on America: Two Gamblers, One Presidential Election
Legalized betting on political outcomes has drawn interest from many voters, reflecting a shift in America's gambling landscape.
Presidential election still a toss-up
Election forecasts indicate a leading candidate, but the outcome remains highly uncertain, akin to gambling where perceived advantages can still lead to losses.
TechScape: Betting markets come for everything and the FBI comes for a betting market
Gambling on presidential elections became legal, marking a shift towards prediction markets with significant user engagement favoring Trump over Harris.
Online election gamblers expect $450 million jackpot after Trump's win
Prediction markets outperformed traditional polling in forecasting the U.S. election results, leading to significant payouts for gamblers.
Betting on America: Two Gamblers, One Presidential Election
Legalized betting on political outcomes has drawn interest from many voters, reflecting a shift in America's gambling landscape.
Presidential election still a toss-up
Election forecasts indicate a leading candidate, but the outcome remains highly uncertain, akin to gambling where perceived advantages can still lead to losses.
TechScape: Betting markets come for everything and the FBI comes for a betting market
Gambling on presidential elections became legal, marking a shift towards prediction markets with significant user engagement favoring Trump over Harris.
Online election gamblers expect $450 million jackpot after Trump's win
Prediction markets outperformed traditional polling in forecasting the U.S. election results, leading to significant payouts for gamblers.
Polymarket proves as reliable forecaster of political events.
Significant prediction swings related to Harris stepping into the spotlight.
The FBI just raided the home of Polymarket's founder. What does the future of electoral betting markets hold?
Polymarket's future is uncertain following an FBI raid linked to ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential money laundering investigations.
Kamala Harris Pulls Well Ahead of Trump on Polymarket
Prediction markets show Harris leading on Polymarket. Trump's interview with Musk may involve MAGA and crypto. Kalshi bettors predict slim chance for OpenAI's Sora before 2025.
Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call-Then came the FBI
Polymarket's prediction market reflects changing dynamics in political forecasting, but regulatory challenges raise questions about its future operations.
U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction
Kalshi's election prediction market volume suggests strong interest, despite a late launch.
Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge
Polymarket may issue a token to facilitate real-world event validations in prediction markets.
Prediction markets post-Biden: Trump's chances down slightly, but Harris' odds jump to 40%
Polymarket proves as reliable forecaster of political events.
Significant prediction swings related to Harris stepping into the spotlight.
The FBI just raided the home of Polymarket's founder. What does the future of electoral betting markets hold?
Polymarket's future is uncertain following an FBI raid linked to ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential money laundering investigations.
Kamala Harris Pulls Well Ahead of Trump on Polymarket
Prediction markets show Harris leading on Polymarket. Trump's interview with Musk may involve MAGA and crypto. Kalshi bettors predict slim chance for OpenAI's Sora before 2025.
Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call-Then came the FBI
Polymarket's prediction market reflects changing dynamics in political forecasting, but regulatory challenges raise questions about its future operations.
U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction
Kalshi's election prediction market volume suggests strong interest, despite a late launch.
Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge
Polymarket may issue a token to facilitate real-world event validations in prediction markets.
Limitless Labs Secures $3M Funding from 1confirmation to Revolutionize Prediction Markets | HackerNoon
Limitless Labs raised $3 million to enhance a fast-growing prediction marketplace with a focus on delivering innovative features and expanding user engagement.
The Gnosis conditional token framework enhances prediction markets by tokenizing outcomes through blockchain smart contracts.
Prediction Market Kalshi to Supply Price Data for Crypto Oracle Stork
Kalshi partners with Stork to enhance crypto applications using prediction market data.
The collaboration aims to develop perpetual futures contracts on real-world event probabilities.
Polymarket Explained: How Blockchain Prediction Markets Are Shaping the Future of Forecasting | HackerNoon
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that prioritizes user control and experience via non-custodial wallets.
A New Prediction Market Raises $3M in Pre-Seed Round Led by 1confirmation
Limitless Network raised $3 million to create a prediction market focusing on quick expiration events like daily stock prices.
Limitless Labs Secures $3M Funding from 1confirmation to Revolutionize Prediction Markets | HackerNoon
Limitless Labs raised $3 million to enhance a fast-growing prediction marketplace with a focus on delivering innovative features and expanding user engagement.
Second Trump assassination attempt isn't changing the state of the race
Prediction markets show stable betting odds for Trump and Harris, indicating that the assassination attempt had no significant impact on election predictions.
Second Assassination Attempt Barely Moves Trump's Polymarket Odds
Trump's chances of winning the election decreased after a second assassination attempt, contrary to the first incident that had previously increased his odds.
Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC
Kalshi's recent legal victory has opened the door for U.S. election markets, allowing betting on congressional control before the election.
Trump leads Harris on Robinhood's new prediction market with 100 million contracts traded
Robinhood's new election betting platform has gained immense popularity, trading over 100 million contracts in its first week.
Can You Bet on the Presidential Race? Here's How To Get Started | amNewYork
Kalshi offers a secure platform for U.S. citizens to legally bet on the presidential race following a recent regulatory change.
The Giant Asterisk on Election Betting
Election betting is gaining traction as a significant factor in predicting political outcomes.
Second Trump assassination attempt isn't changing the state of the race
Prediction markets show stable betting odds for Trump and Harris, indicating that the assassination attempt had no significant impact on election predictions.
Second Assassination Attempt Barely Moves Trump's Polymarket Odds
Trump's chances of winning the election decreased after a second assassination attempt, contrary to the first incident that had previously increased his odds.
Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC
Kalshi's recent legal victory has opened the door for U.S. election markets, allowing betting on congressional control before the election.
Trump leads Harris on Robinhood's new prediction market with 100 million contracts traded
Robinhood's new election betting platform has gained immense popularity, trading over 100 million contracts in its first week.
Can You Bet on the Presidential Race? Here's How To Get Started | amNewYork
Kalshi offers a secure platform for U.S. citizens to legally bet on the presidential race following a recent regulatory change.
The Giant Asterisk on Election Betting
Election betting is gaining traction as a significant factor in predicting political outcomes.
How high will Bitcoin go? Here's what prediction markets say
Prediction markets show potential for Bitcoin projections, indicating $95,000 could be reached in November.
Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory
Prediction markets like Polymarket outperformed traditional polls in forecasting Trump's election victory, marking a pivotal moment for the betting culture in politics.
How high will Bitcoin go? Here's what prediction markets say
Prediction markets show potential for Bitcoin projections, indicating $95,000 could be reached in November.
Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory
Prediction markets like Polymarket outperformed traditional polls in forecasting Trump's election victory, marking a pivotal moment for the betting culture in politics.
Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong Showing
Prediction markets, especially Polymarket, effectively forecasted the 2024 election results, highlighting their reliability over traditional polling methods.
Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYork
Prediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.
Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.
Prediction markets consistently provide more accurate election forecasts than traditional polls and media outlets.
Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?
Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets' Big Night: 'We Even Overtook Pornhub'
Prediction markets may provide alternative insights into election outcomes, contrasting sharply with traditional polls.
Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?
The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.
Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong Showing
Prediction markets, especially Polymarket, effectively forecasted the 2024 election results, highlighting their reliability over traditional polling methods.
Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYork
Prediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.
Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.
Prediction markets consistently provide more accurate election forecasts than traditional polls and media outlets.
Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?
Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets' Big Night: 'We Even Overtook Pornhub'
Prediction markets may provide alternative insights into election outcomes, contrasting sharply with traditional polls.
Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?
The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.
Trump's premature declaration of victory during the debate suggests desperation rather than confidence, indicating a potential loss in his campaign.
The polls say the presidential election is a dead heat. But online bettors are leaning to Trump. Who's right?
Prediction markets show a shift in momentum towards Trump, despite polls showing a close race with Harris.
A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor
Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suggest former President Trump has a strong advantage in the upcoming election compared to traditional polls.
All the signs Trump lost the debate
Trump's premature declaration of victory during the debate suggests desperation rather than confidence, indicating a potential loss in his campaign.
The polls say the presidential election is a dead heat. But online bettors are leaning to Trump. Who's right?
Prediction markets show a shift in momentum towards Trump, despite polls showing a close race with Harris.
A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor
Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suggest former President Trump has a strong advantage in the upcoming election compared to traditional polls.
Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)
Kalshi launching prediction markets on crypto price outcomes in U.S. dollars.
Kalshi's move into crypto coincides with a surge in digital asset prices and renewed interest in prediction markets.
U.S. Election Betting: Federal Court 'Erred' in Letting Kalshi Launch Prediction Markets, CFTC Says
A federal judge's ruling allows Kalshi to list election betting contracts, prompting the CFTC to appeal based on concerns of improper regulatory oversight.
Kalshi's U.S. Election Markets Delayed Until Friday at Earliest
Kalshi may launch U.S. election prediction markets following a legal victory, but a hearing's outcome is pending.
Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)
Kalshi launching prediction markets on crypto price outcomes in U.S. dollars.
Kalshi's move into crypto coincides with a surge in digital asset prices and renewed interest in prediction markets.
U.S. Election Betting: Federal Court 'Erred' in Letting Kalshi Launch Prediction Markets, CFTC Says
A federal judge's ruling allows Kalshi to list election betting contracts, prompting the CFTC to appeal based on concerns of improper regulatory oversight.
Kalshi's U.S. Election Markets Delayed Until Friday at Earliest
Kalshi may launch U.S. election prediction markets following a legal victory, but a hearing's outcome is pending.
Predict the next unicorn? Insights from "superforecaster" VCs can help. Here's how
Human intuition remains unparalleled in predicting future outcomes, especially in venture capital.
Cypherpunks Write Code: Jim Bell & Assassination Politics | HackerNoon
Jim Bell's 'Assassination Politics' introduces a controversial concept of using prediction markets for targeting government officials, reflecting radical anarcho-libertarian ideologies.
Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion
Harris is leading in prediction markets for swing states, while skepticism looms over Bitcoin's rally and doubts exist about 'Black Myth: Wukong' winning awards.
Could Prediction Markets Offer Better Odds at Who Wins the US Elections? | HackerNoon
Most users engage with prediction markets for observation rather than trading.
Understanding user behavior is essential for refining product development and marketing strategies.
Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion
Harris is leading in prediction markets for swing states, while skepticism looms over Bitcoin's rally and doubts exist about 'Black Myth: Wukong' winning awards.
Could Prediction Markets Offer Better Odds at Who Wins the US Elections? | HackerNoon
Most users engage with prediction markets for observation rather than trading.
Understanding user behavior is essential for refining product development and marketing strategies.
Caroline Ellison Most Likely Won't Serve Time, Polymarket Traders Bet
Caroline Ellison may avoid prison due to cooperation with prosecutors, according to prediction markets.
Traders remain skeptical about Qualcomm's bid for Intel succeeding.
Kamala Harris Will 'Win' First Debate With Trump, Polymarket Traders Are Betting
Prediction markets reveal hesitance in the impact of debates on polls, as seen by unsuccessful manipulative strategies and regained stability post-debate.
Can Prediction Market Boom Continue After Election? This Crypto Team Has a Plan
The future of prediction markets may face challenges after the 2024 elections due to dwindling interest and liquidity.
Hedgehog Markets aims to create more sustainable prediction markets by focusing on less liquid but potentially enduring events.
Dragonfly, Crypto.com Weigh in on CFTC's Proposed Prediction Market Rules
Crypto industry criticizes CFTC's proposed rules on prediction markets, highlighting concerns of overreach and ambiguity.
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Prediction markets show 45% chance for both Trump and Biden to win the U.S. presidency, differing from polls.
Trump or Biden? The Stock Market Doesn't Care.
Prediction markets show tight race between Biden and Trump, despite strong economy and stock market performance.
Risk Assets Like Bitcoin Are Defying Low Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Analyst
Risk assets like bitcoin are resilient to U.S. inflation and a Fed rate cut.
Prediction markets suggest that BTC will hit an all-time high this year.
Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals
Prediction markets show indications on popular vote outcomes.
Regulatory settlements impact prediction market access for U.S. users.